With only four games left for each of the teams in the Atlantic University Hockey Conference, the only thing that has been decided is that it is going to be another wild finish as the top three teams joust for the two first-round byes and the bottom three teams duke it out for the one remaining playoff spot.
Although snubbed again by the CIS top-ten rankers, the 8th ranked University of New Brunswick Varsity Reds still lead the 5th ranked St. Francis Xavier X-Men by a point for first place in the Atlantic. As was the case the previous weekend, UNB and X skated to another exciting 4-4 tie on Friday. Not much to choose between these two teams.
On Saturday in Halifax, UNB exacted their revenge for blowing a lead, and the game, seven days earlier at home to 9th ranked St. Mary's Huskies. SMU scored first, but the V-Reds scored the next four at goaltender Reg Bourcier put on a clinic and the penalty-killers notched two tallies. SMU finished the weekend where they started in third place but are now four points back of UNB.
In the battle for 6th place, and the last playoff berth, the red-hot Acadia Axemen cling on with just a one point lead on slumping St. Thomas and a narrow two point lead on Moncton. The STU Tommies and the UdeM Aigles Bleus have two dance dates left, the first this Friday in an absolute must-win for both teams. The Tommies may be looking for their cross-campus rivals (UNB) to give them some help by beating Moncton and UPEI, but Acadia still controls its own destiny - if they can keep winning, they'll squeeze out STU and Moncton for sixth place.
So what does this all mean? It looks like last season in that we are probably going to have to wait until the last game to see who is in, who is out, and who gets the byes. Playoffs are especially critical this year, because with the rotating wild card going to the Atlantic conference, half of the six playoff teams (including host UNB) will be at Nationals in Fredericton.
How do I think it will sift out? I have no idea. A few weeks back when we thought Acadia was done as dinner after dropping games to UNB and Moncton; they picked themselves up and went on a winning streak. STU was cruising along the first few games after the Christmas break, and now they can't seem to buy a win.
No matter who comes out of the Atlantic, I predict with confidence that they will be a force to be reckoned with at Nationals. On paper, host UNB doesn't have as much talent or near the experience of last year's team, but on the ice they are a much faster and tighter bunch that dominates almost all of the league statistics. When you look at the X-Men's lineup, you think they should dominate the league, as they are only missing a few players from last year's silver medal team and they've added some strong recruits. Yet, they can't seem to surpass UNB in head-to-head match-ups. SMU lost some key players this year, but the Huskies seem to play better in their absence and may still finish in first or second place.
Dalhousie and UPEI have explosive offences and are hard to beat when their goaltenders are on their game, so one will not want to play them in the playoffs. Whoever survives among Acadia, STU and Moncton will be playing on borrowed time and should be loose and dangerous in the first round of the playoffs.
It would be too easy to say that UNB, X and SMU will be the three Atlantic teams at Nationals. UNB will certainly be there as host, but I think either X or SMU is going to get "upset" by someone in the playoffs, and it won't be a real upset because any of the Atlantic teams have shown they can beat any other team.
As for the biggest prediction, don't shoot me but I think it will be Alberta and one of the Atlantic schools battling for the gold medal. Rankings mean nothing at Nationals be